America’s Innovation Future Is at Risk Without STEM Growth

A nation’s STEM talent is key to its economic growth and competitiveness, especially in advanced industries where science and technology are the foundation. Yet, data from the National Science Foundation and China’s Ministry of Education show that the United States is falling behind China in producing STEM talent at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. More concerning, the data also shows that China’s growth rate for Ph.D. degrees surpasses the U.S. rate, indicating the gap is widening. As a result, Chinese institutions represented 7 of the top 10 institutions with the highest volume of academic research publications.

Despite these trends, the federal government’s decision to cut funding and revoke visas for foreign researchers will only further put the United States behind China—these researchers are moving abroad, including to China. Indeed, a Nature poll found that 75 percent of U.S. researchers are considering moving abroad.

China has been surpassing the United States in STEM Ph.D. graduates since 2007. In 2000, the United States produced 17,830 STEM Ph.Ds compared to China’s 7,520. But by 2007, China had edged ahead with 24,430 Ph.Ds versus the United States’ 23,940, and the gap has only widened since. By 2022, China awarded more than 50,970 STEM doctorates—over 50 percent more than the 33,820 awarded in the United States. (See figure 1.) This is partly due to China’s population being four times that of the United States.

Figure 1: STEM Ph.D graduates in the United States and China

The same story plays out at the undergraduate level. China has long surpassed the United States in producing first university degrees in science and engineering. In 2011, China produced 1.39 million such degrees, more than double the 653,341 awarded in the United States. By 2020, China was awarding nearly 2 million bachelor’s degrees annually, compared with just under 900,000 in the United States. (See figure 2.)

Figure 2: First university degrees in science and engineering

While China’s larger population partly explains these disparities, China’s higher rate of growth in the production of STEM Ph.D is concerning. While China’s STEM Ph.D. output has grown at an average annual rate of about 9 percent since 2000, the United States’ output grew at just 3 percent. (See figure 3.) As a result, the gap between the number of STEM Ph.Ds in the United States and China is rapidly widening.

Figure 3: Annual growth rate for STEM Ph.Ds, 2000–2022

An increasing number of STEM doctorates are needed to sustain and expand scientific research capacity. Not surprisingly, data from Nature Index shows that Chinese universities dominated global research output from May 2024 to 2025. Chinese institutions represented 7 of the top 10 institutions with the highest volume of academic research publications, collectively publishing 19,151 papers. Meanwhile, only three U.S. institutions ranked in the top 10, indicating a shift towards China in global scientific leadership.

Table 1: Top 10 institutions producing the highest number of research publications from May 2024 to 2025

The implications for U.S. competitiveness are significant. Advanced industries such as semiconductors, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and weapons systems depend on a robust pipeline of world-class STEM talent. If the United States fails to keep pace with China in cultivating the next generation of researchers, it risks ceding ground in the very sectors that will define economic and geopolitical leadership in the 21st century. ITIF’s Hamilton Index already shows that China leads in output across seven advanced industries and is steadily working to capture even greater market share. Its larger and faster-growing pool of STEM Ph.D. graduates will only accelerate this shift.

To address this challenge, U.S. policymakers should prioritize policies that expand and strengthen the STEM talent pipeline. First, Congress should require all public universities to report STEM enrollment statistics—such as acceptance rates for each field, switch-out and dropout rates, and graduation rates—to analyze which colleges produce the most STEM graduates (and learn lessons from them) and which ones need assistance. Second, policymakers should restore, and ideally expand, federal support for graduate education in STEM fields. Finally, they should make it easier for highly skilled international students to study and stay in the United States. Immigration reform that retains top global talent, combined with investments in STEM education, will be critical. Without bold action, the United States risks falling further behind in the race for scientific and technological leadership.