China

The United States is at serious risk of becoming dependent on China for a wide array of key technologies and products, which would significantly shift the global balance of techno-economic power. Only fundamental policy change can potentially keep the United States from defeat.

The Chinese shipbuilding industry controls 55 percent of global market share, with exports increasing by 1,525 percent since 2004.

Letting Chinese EV and battery firms build in America wouldn’t revive manufacturing. It would reduce U.S. market share, hollow out domestic capabilities, and create new strategic dependencies.

The TikTok deal shows that targeted structural safeguards can address data security risks without banning foreign apps outright. It also highlights unresolved challenges around reciprocity, uneven enforcement, and how governments should handle other Chinese tech platforms going forward.

Davos made clear that many “allies” would rather denounce the United States and chase access to Chinese markets than bear the burdens required to sustain the Western alliance and democratic system.

The International Monetary Fund found that the Chinese yuan is significantly undervalued, with Goldman Sachs estimating that the value of the currency is 25 percent below what is expected.

The Trump administration’s decision to allow H200 chip sales to China is strategically sound because it keeps Chinese firms reliant on U.S. technology, supports American chipmakers’ R&D, and preserves U.S. competitive advantage, though imposing a 25 percent fee undermines these benefits.

China has failed to meet its commitments under the U.S.-China POA. It is not a reliable trade partner, as potential commitments to reverse its predatory practices are antithetical to its long-term techno-economic project.

China has closely followed the proven economic model of the Asian Tigers, only this time with an order of magnitude increase in scale. Acknowledging and addressing this simple business model reality is the key to developing an effective American response.

In China Daily, Daniel Castro argues that the U.S. and China face AI risks—like models enabling biological threats or cyberattacks—that are too great for either to manage alone, and can be mitigated through coordinated safety measures such as joint research, incident reporting, and red-team testing.