Fact of the Week: In 2022, China Produced Over 35 Percent of the Publications in the Top 5 Percent of Journals

Source: Abhishek Nagaraj and Randol Yao, “The Geography of Science,” (working paper 34694, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, Massachusetts, January 2026).

Commentary: The United States has, for decades, led the world in academic publications, both overall and among highly cited papers, with 60 percent of the papers published in the top journals in 1980 written by authors based in America. However, these trends have flipped over the past several decades. As of 2022, China has become the leader in this rank, producing over 35 percent of the publications in top-tier journals, up from nearly zero in 1980. At the same time, the United States has seen its share fall rapidly to about 25 percent, about equal to that of the European Union. China’s growth in this metric reflects both the number of researchers and the quality of their research. Chinese researchers accounted for more than one-fourth of all researchers in the top journals studied in the sample in 2022. Regarding the topics studied, Chinese researchers lead the world in engineering, physical sciences, and materials engineering, but have not yet overtaken the United States in fields such as biomedical and health sciences.