Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, “OECD Economic Outlook Interim Report March 2026,” (Paris, France: OECD, March 26, 2026).
Commentary: The conflict in the Middle East, which has blocked shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and led to the destruction of energy infrastructure throughout the region, has increased the cost of commodities such as oil, gas, and fertilizer. This price shock has affected the entire world, raising the cost of food, energy, and transportation. Assuming this disruption ends by mid-2026, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) increased its inflation projection for this year from 2.8 percent to 4 percent in G20 countries. Additionally, while it still expects global GDP to increase by 2.9 percent in 2026, it has lowered its 2027 projection from 3.1 percent to 3.0 percent. Should the conflict continue in the long term, however, the OECD expects its impact on prices and economic growth to be far greater. Under this scenario, global GDP could be 0.3 percentage points lower than previously anticipated in 2026 and 0.5 percentage points lower in 2027, while global inflation could rise 0.7 percentage points above previous expectations in 2026 and 0.9 percentage points above previous expectations in 2027.