A quarter century after the dot-com revolution, the growth of artificial intelligence is prompting similar waves of hope and alarm about this potentially world-changing technology. In The Ripon Forum, Robert D. Atkinson argues that while it is impossible to predict the future, AI could follow a comparable path: a few hiccups now, followed by robust, sustained growth.
Drawing on the technology “hype cycle,” Atkinson explains that most new technologies go through phases. After a new technology is introduced, there is often a period of “Inflated Expectations,” followed by a “Trough of Disillusionment” when early expectations fail to materialize immediately. Many technologies eventually reach a “Plateau of Productivity,” where they are widely adopted and deliver meaningful benefits to society, albeit less dramatic than the initial hype suggested.
Recent narratives around AI highlight underwhelming corporate results or dire predictions about job loss. As Atkinson argues, this reflects a predictable adjustment phase, not evidence that AI is destined to collapse. Historically, new technologies have presented challenges, but their long-term benefits to productivity, income, and living standards have far outweighed the costs.
The economic benefits of AI in the United States are already significant. Rather than fixating on short-term stock valuations, Atkinson urges policymakers to focus on enabling growth. His recommendations include:
- Do no harm through premature taxation or overregulation
- Strengthen federal workforce development and worker adjustment systems
- Accelerate data center and energy infrastructure development
- Unlock high-value sectoral data through improved standards and data-sharing frameworks
- Stand up to foreign governments targeting U.S. AI firms
Atkinson concludes that the real danger is not an AI bubble, but self-inflicted policy mistakes that undermine America’s global AI leadership.
Read the full op-ed in The Ripon Forum.
