
Fact of the Week: Chinese Currency Manipulation May Be Driving the Trade Surplus Between China and Europe
Source: Jurgen Matthes, “Yuan Undervaluation Against the Euro: Unfair Cost Advantages for China?! Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area,”Institut Der Deutschen Wirtshaft, IW-Report 36/2025, (July 23, 2025).
Commentary: As of 2025, the goods trade deficit between the European Union and China has doubled since 2020, while it is 3.6 times greater in Germany. According to a report by Jurgen Matthes, one driver of this imbalance has been Chinese currency manipulation, which has allowed Chinese firms to undercut the prices of European retailers. Over this period, the exchange rate between the Yuan and the Euro has remained stable. However, several forces in the world economy should have increased the value of the Yuan relative to the Euro. For one, high inflation in Europe has increased prices by more than 35 percent, which should have caused demand for the Euro to fall relative to the Yuan. At the same time, the growing trade surplus between China and Europe should have increased demand for the Yuan, increasing its value.
Mattes estimates that real demand for the Yuan has increased by €125 billion between 2020 and 2024. Under a free-floating exchange rate, the Yuan’s value should have increased as demand for it increased. These findings suggest that the Chinese government and its central bank may be manipulating its currency, allowing Chinese firms to sell goods at cheaper prices compared to Europe, helping to increase its trade surplus.