Trump’s Gilded Age Governing Agenda

Dwight Eisenhower warned that abolishing New Deal programs would undermine any political party’s viability, and for decades Republicans largely grudgingly heeded that caution. Even though many on the right have long viewed Wilson’s New Freedom, Roosevelt’s New Deal, and Johnson’s Great Society as fundamental deviations from America’s founding principles, conservative politicians, like liberals, have dared not touch them. The policies and programs of those eras were assumed to be sacrosanct pillars of the post-World War II power and prosperity we have known as the American Century.

But President Trump and the MAGA movement, buoyed by a perception of the Biden administration’s overreach, are now actively revolting against all that was once held sacred. Many are doing so under the banner of “drain the swamp.” More fundamentally, though, the animating desire is to return to the governance of more than a century ago—that of the Gilded Age, an era of small government, protective tariffs, limited immigration, and America as regional power—a period that reached its zenith during the Republican administration of President William McKinley.

Trump may provide the charisma, mandate, and ruthlessness necessary to restore this vision. But whether he succeeds or fails, there are striking parallels between the governing agendas of early 20th-century Republicans and Trump in his second term:

1. Tariffs. From Lincoln to Hoover, Republicans, particularly those representing the industrialized Northeast and Midwest, championed high tariffs. McKinley, the “Napoleon of Protection,” epitomized this stance. The McKinley Tariff of 1890 raised rates to nearly 50 percent on numerous American products, and as president, he enacted the even steeper Dingley Tariff Act. Similarly, Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs harken back to those days that Trump himself has lauded.
2. Taxation. While many progressive Republicans supported the 1913 Income Tax, most conservative members of Congress opposed it. Senate Majority Leader Nelson W. Aldrich pledged there would be no “income tax, inheritance tax, stamp tax, or corporation tax.” Trump echoes this stance, proposing to eliminate federal income taxes in favor of tariff funding through a new “External Revenue Service,” to return the United States “to the system that made us richer and more powerful than ever before.”
3. Government philosophy. Not having an income tax was feasible in 1912 because the federal government was minimal, with just 10 executive departments consuming less than 3 percent of GDP—roughly one-tenth of today’s share. During his first term, Trump proposed eliminating 62 agencies and programs. More recently, he has pushed for cutting or eliminating the Department of Education, U.S. AID, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Federal Emergency Management Administration, and scores of other small agencies, and has offered buyouts to encourage federal workers to resign en masse as part of a broad push to reduce the size of government. Meanwhile, Elon Musk, the DOGE tsar, proposes slashing total federal spending by at least 30 percent. In addition, beyond the similarities in government size, McKinley-era Republicans embraced constitutional originalism, states’ rights, and a limited federal role in social reform. Trump’s court nominations, his push to transfer more responsibilities to the states, and his DEI ban all align with this philosophy.
4. Foreign policy. Republicans at the turn of the 20th century blended expansionism with isolationism. Cartoons of the time portrayed McKinley as an overweight expansionist, extending the American empire into the Caribbean and the Philippines. Yet, the 1916 Republican platform advocated for “strict and honest neutrality” in European conflicts. Similarly, Trump has discussed making Canada the 51st state, retaking the Panama Canal, annexing Greenland, and taking over the Gaza Strip. But he appears far less inclined to extend “Pax Americana” globally, often criticizing “globalists,” whom he blames for embroiling America in what he sees as needless wars.
5. Monetary policy. To protect rich savers, McKinley-era Republicans championed the gold standard in opposition to the Democrats’ inflationary “free silver” proposals. Likewise, Trump has made it clear that he wants to defend the strong dollar, and has threatened the BRICS with massive tariffs if they abandon it. And he supports cryptocurrencies—which some refer to as digital gold—as a way to ensure sound money.
6. Business relations and antitrust. Republicans of the early 20th century were the party of business, advocating for minimal government regulation and lower taxes on business. Their 1916 party platform stated, “The Republican party believes in encouraging American business as it believes in and will seek to advance all American interests.” Today, one need only look at the tech billionaires at Trump’s inauguration to see that he is pro-business. Additionally, McKinley-era Republicans, including Taft, Harding, and Coolidge, favored limited antitrust enforcement, viewing large corporations as key drivers of emerging U.S. power and wealth. While it remains unclear how Trump sees antitrust, he will likely reject much of the progressive “neo-Brandeisian” approach championed by the Biden administration, at least as it applies to “non-woke” companies.
7. Immigration. By the 1920s, Republicans restricted immigration through the Emergency Quota Act of 1921 and the Immigration Act of 1924, favoring immigrants from Northern Europe. Similarly, Trump prioritizes deporting illegal immigrants and limiting legal immigration.

Despite the vast overlap of views, there is one key area where Trump has taken heed of Eisenhower’s warning: Social Security and Medicare. While the American people seem willing to accept broad cuts to the federal apparatus, they are unwavering in their defense of entitlements to themselves. As a result, Trump has taken entitlement cuts off the table. However, if—and more likely when—the national debt challenge becomes unbearable, it’s likely that Trump will support entitlement cuts beyond Medicaid.

President Trump’s agenda represents more than personality-driven populism—it’s a coherent vision to restore pre-Progressive Era governance. So, to discern his motivations and potential actions, it is surprisingly helpful to ask, “What would McKinley do?” Trump’s presidency could reshape the federal government to reflect early 20th-century models, signaling a fundamental departure from the New Deal consensus that has defined American politics for nearly a century.