The OECD now expects global GDP to grow by 3.1 percent this year, reduced from the previous projection of 3.3 percent in light of heightened trade barriers and political uncertainty.

Fact of the Week: Analysts Have Downgraded Global GDP Growth Projections for 2025 to 3.1 Percent

A recent article suggests that while the tariffs may have decreased Chinese imports to the United States, Chinese imports also increased in other major U.S. trading partners.

Fact of the Week: China’s Share of US Goods Imports Has Fallen by 8 Percentage Points Since the 2018–2019 Tariff Hikes

Fact of the Week: China's Share of US Goods Imports Has Fallen by 8 Percentage Points Since the 2018–2019 Tariff Hikes

After falling from its peak of 5.7 percent in 2006 to 3.6 percent in 2019, the United States’ manufacturing trade deficit as a share of its GDP has risen to 5.3 percent in 2022 through June, its highest level since 2008 (5.5 percent).

Fact of the Week: The US Manufacturing Trade Deficit as a Share of GDP Through June Is at Its Highest Level Since 2008

The United States imposed six sets of tariffs in 2018, levying taxes on $303 billion worth of U.S. imports, which drove other nations to impose tariffs on $121 billion worth of U.S. exports. New analysis of U.S. trade through November 2018 found that nearly all the value of tariffs was passed through to U.S. companies and consumers in the form of domestic price increases.

Fact of the Week: Tariff Increases Through November 2018 Redirected $165 Billion in Trade on an Annualized Basis, Reducing Overall U.S. Welfare by $16.8 Billion

The United States imposed tariffs on $290 billion of imports in 2018 and 2019, with an average tariff increase of 24 percent. A new study has quantified the impact of this on the U.S. economy, finding that firms facing increased import costs accounted for 84 percent of U.S. exports in those years and 65 percent of U.S. manufacturing employment.

Fact of the Week: New US Import Tariffs Have Cost Affected Firms an Average of $900 Per Worker

A new study finds the U.S. share of global manufacturing will fall to 11 percent by 2030, while China’s will increase to 45 percent.

Fact of the Week: A New Study Finds the US Share of Global Manufacturing Will Fall to 11 Percent by 2030

A recent working paper suggests that trade and technology restrictions in the U.S. not only reduce consumer welfare and exports, but also negatively influence other indicators such as foreign investment due to declines in associated technology transfer.

Fact of the Week: US Export Controls Reduce Foreign Direct Investment in the US by 13 Percent

The fall in the value-added of foreign inputs as a share of China’s gross exports reflects an increased reliance on domestic production of intermediate goods and services and a shift toward production for domestic consumption.

Fact of the Week: Foreign-Produced Content of Chinese Exports Fell From 21.9 Percent in 2008 to 17.2 Percent in 2018

After China acceded to the WTO, the trade-creation impact accounted for four-fifths of its manufacturing productivity growth in the next six years, writes John Wu in Innovation Files.

Fact of the Week: Reducing Tariffs Accounted for Fourth-Fifths of China’s Manufacturing Productivity Growth in the 6 Years Following its Accession to the WTO

Fact of the Week: Reducing Tariffs Accounted for Fourth-Fifths of China's Manufacturing Productivity Growth in the 6 Years Following its Accession to the WTO

Fact of the Week: World Merchandise Trade Is Projected To Fall by 0.2 Percent in 2025

Related

Fact of the Week: Analysts Have Downgraded Global GDP Growth Projections for 2025 to 3.1 Percent

Fact of the Week: China’s Share of US Goods Imports Has Fallen by 8 Percentage Points Since the 2018–2019 Tariff Hikes

Fact of the Week: The US Manufacturing Trade Deficit as a Share of GDP Through June Is at Its Highest Level Since 2008