Source: Ralph Ossa, “Global Trade Faces Setback Amid Rising Tariffs” World Trade Organization, April 16, 2025.
Commentary: In the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Report for 2025,” the WTO predicts that global merchandise trade will decline by 0.2 percentage points, driven largely by widespread blanket tariffs initiated by the Trump administration, a trade war between the United States and China, and global economic uncertainty. This projection comes after a strong year in global trade, where merchandise trade grew by 2.9 percent and services trade by 6.8 percent. The impact of recent trade policy disruptions will not be felt equally, with the most-damaging effects to be felt in North America. Exports are projected to fall by 12.6 percent while imports to the continent are also expected to fall by 9.6 percent. Analysts expect the ongoing decoupling between the United States and China to have ripple effects across the global economy, as China redirects exports to other countries. Chinese merchandise exports to regions outside North America are expected to grow by 4 to 9 percent, while U.S. imports of these goods are expected to fall significantly.
