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Fact of the Week: A New Study Finds the US Share of Global Manufacturing Will Fall to 11 Percent by 2030
Source: United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), “The Future of Industrialization: Building Future-Ready Industries to Turn Challenges into Sustainable Solutions,” (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: UNIDO, October 2024).
Commentary: For much of the 20th century and into the early 2000s, high-income countries dominated global industrial production, namely the United States, Japan, and European nations. The United States was responsible for one-fourth of global manufacturing value-added, while Japan and Germany followed with 11 and 8 percent, respectively. In total, high-income countries accounted for 75 percent of global industrial output, while China was responsible for just 6 percent. However, due to the numerous national efforts to increase manufacturing capacity, such as “Made in China 2025”, China has upended the global manufacturing hierarchy. China currently holds the greatest share of global manufacturing value-added, with several sources estimating it controls between 26 and 30 percent. UNIDO estimates that by 2030, China will continue to gain ground in manufacturing industries, most worryingly in advanced technologies, increasing its share to 45 percent. The United States is estimated to hold 11 percent of the global share.