Points to Consider: Alleged Decline in GM Crop Plantings Misses Forest for Trees

No innovation in the history of agriculture has been more rapidly adopted than seeds improved through biotechnology. Grown in negligible amounts starting in 1984, the first commercial plantings in 1996 led to explosive growth in the years since. The cumulative total area is expected to top 4 billion acres this year. Data confirming this remarkable success story compiled by the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture were released in February of 2014, but some of the stories got critical elements wrong. We take a closer look.

Original Article: Kaskey, Jack, Modified Crop Plantings Fall in Industrialized Nations, Bloomberg News, February 13, 2014

Published Analysis: Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops: 2013 International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications, February 14, 2014

Primary Claims of the Original Article:

• “Genetically modified crop plantings fell in industrialized nations for the first time since the technology was commercialized in 1996, an industry report said.”

• “Plantings in those countries fell about 2 percent to 81 million hectares (200 million acres) last year as Canada sowed less modified canola and Australia cut back on cotton, the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications said in a report today.”

• “In the U.S., the leading market for modified crops, plantings rose less than 1 percent to 70.1 million hectares last year amid a drop in modified cotton, according to James.”

• “Modified plants accounted for 90 percent of U.S. corn while 93 percent of the soy crop was genetically engineered.”

• “Modified cotton fell to 90 percent of the U.S. crop, from 94 percent a year earlier, according to USDA data compiled by Bloomberg. Drought prompted some farmers to switch to cheaper conventional seed on their least productive land, said Mark Kelley, a cotton agronomist at Texas A&M University’s AgriLife Extension Service in Lubbock.”

Rebuttal:  

• The central claims are true, but presented in a misleading manner. The story cherry picks sound bites most easily spun in a negative light, ignoring much more profound and positive developments.

• Plantings increased or held steady in eight of ten industrial nations (USA, Canada, Australia, Spain, Portugal, Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia).

• “The decline in modified plantings in Canada was due to an 800,000-hectare reduction in canola as farmers rotated more conventional wheat into their fields…” – a “decline” to 96%.

• “…lower overall cotton plantings in Australia reduced use of biotech varieties there” declining to only 99% of the cotton planted in the country.

• Unmentioned in the story is the fact that the main reason for a decline in the rate of adoption is that key, large markets (U.S., Brazil, India for cotton, etc.) are now saturated at levels leaving little or no room for further growth.

• The most noteworthy fact documented in the report is the hundred fold increase in area devoted to biotech improved crops from 1996 to 2013. This rate of adoption and market penetration has been matched by no other innovation in agriculture in history.

•  From 1.7 million hectares in 1996 (4.2 million acres) to more than 175 million hectares in 2013 (432 million acres) this adoption rate is unprecedented in the history of world agriculture.

• Market penetration grew at double digit rates every year from 1996-2013.

• More than 1.5 billion hectares ( 3.7 billion acres) of biotech improved crops were  harvested in this period; an area 50% more than the total area of the United States or China.

Additional Global Context:

• “…It is important to note that more modest annual gains, and continued plateauing, are predicted for the next few years due to the already optimal (between 90% and 100%) adoption rates for the principal biotech crops, leaving little or no room for expansion.”

• “In 2013, a record 18 million farmers, up 0.7 million from 2012, grew biotech crops – remarkably over 90%, or over 16.5 million, were small resource-poor farmers in developing countries. Farmers are the masters of risk-aversion and improve productivity through sustainable intensification (confining cultivation to the 1.5 billion hectares of cropland and thereby saving the forests and biodiversity). In 2013, a record 7.5 million small farmers in China and another 7.3 million in India, elected to plant more than 15 million hectares of Bt cotton, because of the significant benefits it offers. In 2013, almost 400,000 small farmers in the Philippines benefited from biotech maize. “

• “The US continued to be the lead country with 70.1 million hectares, with an average ~90% adoption across all crops. Importantly, the first biotech drought tolerant maize was planted by 2,000 US farmers on 50,000 hectares. Brazil was ranked second, and for the fifth consecutive year, was the engine of growth globally, increasing its hectarage of biotech crops more than any other country – an impressive record increase of 3.7 million hectares, up 10% from 2012, reaching 40.3 million hectares. Brazil also planted the first stacked HT/IR soybean in a record-breaking 2.2 million hectare launch, and its home-grown virus-resistant biotech bean is ready for commercialization. Argentina retained its third place with 24.4 million hectares. India, which displaced Canada for the fourth place had a record 11 million hectares of Bt cotton with an adoption rate of 95%. Canada was fifth at 10.8 million hectares with decreased plantings of canola but maintained a high adoption rate of 96%. In 2013, each of the top 5 countries planted more than 10 million hectares providing a broad, solid foundation for future growth.”

• “Five EU countries planted a record 148,013 hectares of biotech Bt maize, up 15% from 2012. Spain led the EU with 136,962 hectares of Bt maize, up 18% from 2012 with a record 31% adoption rate in 2013.”

• “From 1996 to 2012, biotech crops contributed to Food Security, Sustainability and the Environment/Climate Change by: increasing crop production valued at US$116.9 billion; providing a better environment, by saving 497 million kg a.i. of pesticides; in 2012 alone reducing CO₂ emissions by 26.7 billion kg, equivalent to taking 11.8 million cars off the road for one year; conserving biodiversity by saving 123 million hectares of land from 1996-2012; and helped alleviate poverty for >16.5 million small farmers and their families totalling >65 million people, who are some of the poorest people in the world. Biotech crops are essential but are not a panacea and adherence to good farming practices such as rotations and resistance management, are a must for biotech crops as they are for conventional crops.”