Publications: Robert D. Atkinson

President-elect Trump believes the era of U.S.-led globalization has been harmful to America. One way he intends to change course is by imposing tariffs on nations that take advantage of U.S. goodwill and leadership. At greatest risk will be nations with low military budgets, high trade balances, policy barriers to reciprocal trade, and soft positions on China.

Our brains are wired to react to uncertainty with fear before reason catches up. However, giving in to techno-doom panics is bad for humanity.

Japan was a competitor inside the U.S. alliance system. China is a rival trying to replace it. Waiting for China to repeat Japan’s slowdown is not a strategy.

The West held the ladder for the PRC, which is now trying to kick its competitors off the summit. If the United States wants any hope of regaining the top, it must start kicking away the PRC’s ladder by countering its unfair trade practices while building its own with a bold, robust national advanced industry strategy.

The U.S. regulatory state has become a major headwind for national economic power industries competing against China, and incremental reforms will not be enough for America to avoid techno-economic defeat. U.S. policymakers need to adopt a national developmentalist model.

If AI’s supposed “champions” don’t want people to be afraid, they should stop selling fear.

South Korea’s AI-memory boom proves that it can still lead at the technological frontier. The proposed Future Response Fund and national megaprojects will test whether South Korea can turn that lead into stronger suppliers, exportable capabilities, and allied scale before Chinese expansion narrows its industrial base.

Washington is now more focused on China but remains in denial about the threat. Fourteen rationalizations explain why its techno-economic response remains limited.

America must answer three fundamental questions in favor of national power, innovation, growth, and national greatness or risk losing ground to the PRC.

Canada risks permanently losing advanced manufacturing as stagnant productivity, weak innovation, and risk aversion undermine its competitiveness. Reversing course requires a national strategy focused on productivity, innovation, and technology-based growth.