Trump Will Lose the Trade War

The German high command learned a key lesson after World War I: Never fight a two-front war. Hitler ignored that, drawing Germany into another two-front war—and we all know how that ended. As Rob Atkinson writes in Foreign Policy, the same dictum applies to trade wars. It’s okay to fight a single front, but not the entire world.

Yet President Donald Trump chose to launch a global trade war. On his so-called “Liberation Day,” he slapped tariffs on nearly every country, even islands with penguins and allies that run trade deficits with the United States.

Now, much of the world resents the United States and is preparing for a post-American trading system. Japan, South Korea, China, and ASEAN members are deepening cooperation, as are the EU and China. Even Canada is turning to the EU for closer trade and investment ties.

Still, Trump acts as if the United States is “the top dog, the head honcho, the boss.” But as Atkinson warns, it’s time to face the facts: The United States will lose massively from this trade war.

The reason is simple. Too many U.S. companies—especially in advanced industries—depend on global market access to survive and thrive. Trump’s model company is a golf club manufacturer selling only in America. But industries like aerospace and semiconductors require global scale to compete and innovate.

The United States cannot remain powerful without robust advanced industries—and those industries will seriously struggle in Trump’s new world. Meanwhile, China waits to inherit the global trading system America is abandoning.

The only way to effectively counter China is through targeted, coordinated action with allies, not unilateral aggression. Without allies, the United States risks global isolation and industrial decline.

• Read the op-ed in Foreign Policy.